TCER Working Paper Series


New TCER Research

October 2017
Strategy-proof multi-object allocation: Ex-post revenue maximization with no wastage

Tomoya Kazumura, Debasis Mishra and Shigehiro Serizawa
A seller is selling multiple objects to a set of agents. Each agent can buy at most one object and his utility over consumption bundles (i.e., (object,transfer) pairs) need not be quasilinear. The seller considers the following desiderata for her (allocation) rule, which she terms desirable: (1) strategy-proofness, (2) ex-post individual rationality, (3) equal treatment of equals, (4) no wastage (every object is allocated to some agent). The minimum Walrasian equilibrium price (MWEP) rule is desirable. We show that at each preference profile, the MWEP rule generates more revenue for the seller than any desirable rule satisfying no subsidy. Our result works for quasilinear domain, where the MWEP rule is the VCG rule, and for various non-quasilinear domains, some of which incorporate positive income effect of agents. We can relax no subsidy to no bankruptcy in our result for certain domains with positive income effect.
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October 2017
The dynamical stability for an evolutionary language game under selection-mutation dynamics

Seigo Uchida and Masakazu Fukuzumi
We present complete results pertaining to the dynamical stability for sender-receiver games following Lewis (1969), and Nowak and Krakauer (1999) under the selection-mutation dynamics.
Our research reveals that two distinct classes of neutrally stable strategies have a distinguishing feature of the dynamic stability.
The rest points close to the strategies of these classes are asymptotically stable and all rest points other than these are not.
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April 2017
Technology Polarization

Koki Oikawa and Minoru Kitahara
We construct a new method to describe firm distributions within technology fields and investigate the relationship between those distributions and aggregate innovation. To locate firms on a technology space, we apply multidimensional scaling for the inter-firm technological dissimilarity matrices that are computed from patent citation overlaps among firms using the NBER US patent dataset. Our estimated firm distributions show increasing trends in technological distance and polarization on average, where we follow Duclos, Esteban and Ray (2004) to measure polarization. We construct a model of inter-group competition in which polarization stimulates aggregate R&D. The model fits data before 1990 but the impact of polarization is reversed after that. We attribute the structural change to the major patent reform in the United States in 1980s.
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April 2017
The Effect of the Great East Japan Earthquake on the Evacuees’ Unemployment and Earnings

Izumi Yamasaki, Rubkwan Thurmanpornphilas, Miho Takizawa and Tomohiko Inui
This study analyzes the impact of evacuation status on labor market outcomes such as employment and earnings following the Great East Japan Earthquake by using annual microdata from the 2012 Employment Status Survey in Japan. This is the first research that comprehensively examines the effect of evacuation status on labor market performance for evacuees of the Great East Japan Earthquake. The evacuation status categories are (1) evacuated and still away from home, (2) evacuated and moved to another place, (3) evacuated and already returned home, and (4) did not evacuate. We applied a probit model to estimate unemployment and an ordinary least squares regression to estimate earnings. To estimate unemployment and earnings, we also used propensity score matching to control for selection into evacuation status on observable characteristics. After controlling for selection into evacuation categories on observable characteristics, our findings show that those still away from home and those who moved tend to have the worst labor market performance in terms of probability of unemployment and annual earnings. The estimates suggest that we need a specific employment support for those who evacuated especially for those who are still away from home and those who moved to another place.
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March 2017
Inter-firm Technological Proximity and Knowledge Spillovers

Koki Oikawa
This paper has two objectives. One is to survey previous studies concerning indicators of technological proximity and distance to identify technological relationships between firms, particularly in terms of spillovers of technology and knowledge. The other objective is to reexamine the spillover effect in research and development by combining the traditional technological proximity with a measurement of within-field technological relationships, which is based on patent citation overlaps. I find that the average technological proximity is increasing over these three decades in the United States and within-field technological proximity shows sizable variations, and that the spillover effect is underestimated unless the changes in within- field proximities are taken into account.
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March 2017
The Effects of Ethnic Chinese Minority on Vietnam’s Regional Economic Development in the Post-Vietnam War Period

Masami Imai and Tuan Anh Viet Nguyen
This paper examines the impact of the Hoa, an ethnically Chinese, economically dominant minority, on regional economic development in Vietnam. To address the endogeneity of the geographical distribution of the Hoa, we use an important historical episode: the rapid deterioration in Sino-Vietnamese diplomatic relationship that led many ethnic Chinese to flee abroad, particularly to the refugee camps in the Guangxi province of China, in 1979. We find that the effects of proximity to the refugee camps on the share of ethnic Chinese in 1989 were more pronounced for provinces that had a larger presence of the ethnic Chinese population in 1979. We also find strong correlations between the 1989 share of ethnic Chinese (instrumented) and contemporary indicators of economic performance. The results suggest that the ethnic Chinese minority had positive economic impacts on Vietnam’s regional economies and that the post-Vietnam War exodus of ethnic Chinese was likely to have had long-term negative economic impacts.
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September 2016
A Distribution-Free Test of Monotonicity with an Application to Auctions

Yusuke Matsuki
Abstract This study develops a simple distribution-free test of monotonicity of conditional expectations. The test is based solely on ordinary least squares (OLS) and exploits the property between conditional expectation and projection; we prove that the monotonicity of a conditional expectation function restricts the sign of a corresponding projection coefficient. The estimated projection coefficient is used for a one-tailed t-test. The test -- which is notably simpler than other monotonicity tests -- is applied to bidding data from Japanese construction procurement auctions to empirically test first-price sealed bid auction models with independent private values (IPV), assuming the data are generated from a symmetric Bayesian Nash equilibrium. We regress the bid level on the number of bidders and use the estimated projection coefficient for testing. We find that the test results depend on public work categories.
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July 2016
Is the Renminbi a Safe Haven?

Rasmus Fatum, Yohei Yamamoto and Guozhong Zhu
We investigate the relationship between market uncertainty and the relative value of the Renminbi against currencies that the safe haven literature typically considers as the traditional safe haven currency candidates. Our sample spans the February 2011 to April 2016 period. Band spectral regression models enable us to capture that the relationship between market uncertainty and the relative value of the Renminbi is frequency dependent. While we find evidence of some degree of safe haven currency behavior of the Renminbi during the early part of our sample, our findings do not support the suggestion that the Renminbi is currently a safe haven currency or that the Renminbi is progressing towards safe haven currency status.
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May 2016
Does Managerial Experience in a Target Firm Matter for the Retention of Managers after M&As?

Kenjiro Hirata, Ayako Suzuki and Katsuya Takii
This paper examines how managers' tenures in target firms influence their probability of retention as board members after mergers or acquisitions in Japanese firms. It develops a model that distinguishes several hypotheses about the effect of tenure on separation. Our results suggest that experience as an employee increases firm-specific skills, but at the expense of the ability to learn new skills. However, experience as a board member does not have this effect in Japanese firms, the structure of which is known to encourage specific skills. Further, we provide a novel method to correct for selection biases when using data on managers.
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April 2016
Political Economy of Voluntary Approaches: A Lesson from Environmental Policies in Japan

Toshi H.Arimura, Shinji Kaneko, Shunsuke Managi, Takayoshi Shinkuma, Masashi Yamamoto and Yuichiro Yoshida
In this paper, we attempt to identify the reasons behind the differences in environmental policy between Japan and other developed countries, particularly the US. Japan’s environmental policy is unique in that voluntary approaches have been taken to reduce total emissions. This strategy is quite different from the traditional approach of heavy-handed regulation. In Japan, voluntary approaches are conducted through negotiations with polluters. The idea behind this type of voluntary approaches is that the government can induce polluters to abate emissions voluntarily by using light-handed regulations and the threat of heavy-handed regulations. The light-handed regulation is quite effective especially when it is costly to introduce heavy-handed regulations, although the negotiations are difficult to conduct when the number of stakeholders is large. To strengthen our analysis, we provide some examples of Japanese environmental policies which are successful and the ones that are not.
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April 2016
Determinants and Effects of Worker-Initiated Training: Learning about Required Job Skills at the Workplace

Hiromi Hara
There are two main channels for a worker to accumulate human capital; firm-provided training and worker-initiated training (jiko-keihatu). This study focuses on worker-initiated training---a learning activity to improve one's job skills outside of work hours at one's own expense---and examines the motivation underpinning it and its effects on wage growth, skill development, and job opportunities using a unique survey of Japanese workers. While the results indicate that there is no statistically significant immediate increase in wages from worker-initiated training, thus perhaps causing workers to be hesitant to engage in it, it is also shown that worker-initiated training improves job skills and enhances job opportunities, which suggests that it could lead to a wage increase in the future. In addition, those who receive guidance from their supervisors about required skills at the workplace, and thus some insight into desirable work-related skills, are more likely to engage in worker-initiated training than those who have not received such guidance. Moreover, those who within the past three years participated in firm-provided training, the other opportunity for a worker to learn about required skills at the workplace, are also more likely to participate in worker-initiated training. These results suggest that the introduction of a system to better inform workers about required job skills and the possible long-term effects of worker-initiated training could be effective in promoting it.
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May 2016
信用金庫再編後の経営改善効果 ―合併効果の推計―

原田喜美枝, 北村仁代
 本稿では、個別信用金庫の財務データを用いて、再編(合併)に巻き込まれた信用金庫の経営改善効果を検証し、収益性、効率性、健全性の観点から、データのプロット、差の検定、パネル分析によって合併効果を推計している。具体的には、合併のあった年を基準として合併前後の期間をとり、合併(または被合併)信用金庫の財務指標の変化が、合併に関与しなかった信用金庫の変化と差があるがどうかを比較する。分析結果より、合併直後、一時収益性は低下するものの、数年以内に合併以前より高くなること、経費削減によって効率性は高まること、特に人件費率の削減が進むこと、自己資本比率の改善が見られることが明らかになった。収益性、効率性の向上から、合併によって経営パフォーマンスは改善することが示唆される。
 本稿の特徴は、再編が加速した2000年代前半の時期を含めて分析し、分析期間中の全合併事例を詳細に調べ、分析対象となる合併事例を抽出したこと、合併のあった年の前後数年間の財務指標を、合併/被合併信用金庫ごとに集計し、合併のあった信用金庫と同都道府県内で同期間に一度も合併に関与しなかった信用金庫の財務指標と比較を行った点にある。地域金融機関の合併が再び増加傾向にあり、金融機関のあり方が模索されている。合併の効果を明らかにすることで、合併が有効な生き残り手段となることを示した。
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September 2015
「量的・質的金融緩和」からの出口における財政負担

藤木裕, 戸村肇
本稿の目的は、日本銀行の量的・質的金融緩和政策が達成された暁の政策運営(出口戦略)で生じる財政負担の試算を行うことである。ベンチマークシナリオとして日本銀行は2016 年度に2 %の「物価安定の目標」を達成した時点で、マネタリーベース目標を破棄し、長期国債の買入れを停止するとともに、短期金利を引き上げると仮定する。その後、日本銀行は、超過準備に政策金利並みの付利を行うとともに、長期国債の市中売却はせず、過去に購入した長期国債が満期を迎えるにつれ、徐々にバランスシートを縮小させると仮定する。この仮定の下では、超過準備がなくなるまでに約20 年が必要である。この間、長期国債からの利息収入が減る一方、巨額の超過準備への利払いが必要となるため、日本銀行の剰余金も10 年以上マイナスになる。ただしこの試算は景気見通しに沿った日本銀行の収益予測ではなくあくまでシナリオ分析であることに注意が必要である。他のシナリオ分析の結果からは、ベンチマークの仮定よりも「物価安定の目標」達成が遅れるほど、あるいは日本銀行券への需要が減るほど、日本銀行の剰余金のマイナス幅が大きくなることが示される。
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