TCER Working Paper Series

New TCER Research

September 2016
A Distribution-Free Test of Monotonicity with an Application to Auctions

Yusuke Matsuki
Abstract This study develops a simple distribution-free test of monotonicity of conditional expectations. The test is based solely on ordinary least squares (OLS) and exploits the property between conditional expectation and projection; we prove that the monotonicity of a conditional expectation function restricts the sign of a corresponding projection coefficient. The estimated projection coefficient is used for a one-tailed t-test. The test -- which is notably simpler than other monotonicity tests -- is applied to bidding data from Japanese construction procurement auctions to empirically test first-price sealed bid auction models with independent private values (IPV), assuming the data are generated from a symmetric Bayesian Nash equilibrium. We regress the bid level on the number of bidders and use the estimated projection coefficient for testing. We find that the test results depend on public work categories.
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July 2016
Is the Renminbi a Safe Haven?

Rasmus Fatum, Yohei Yamamoto and Guozhong Zhu
We investigate the relationship between market uncertainty and the relative value of the Renminbi against currencies that the safe haven literature typically considers as the traditional safe haven currency candidates. Our sample spans the February 2011 to April 2016 period. Band spectral regression models enable us to capture that the relationship between market uncertainty and the relative value of the Renminbi is frequency dependent. While we find evidence of some degree of safe haven currency behavior of the Renminbi during the early part of our sample, our findings do not support the suggestion that the Renminbi is currently a safe haven currency or that the Renminbi is progressing towards safe haven currency status.
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May 2016
Does Managerial Experience in a Target Firm Matter for the Retention of Managers after M&As?

Kenjiro Hirata, Ayako Suzuki and Katsuya Takii
This paper examines how managers' tenures in target firms influence their probability of retention as board members after mergers or acquisitions in Japanese firms. It develops a model that distinguishes several hypotheses about the effect of tenure on separation. Our results suggest that experience as an employee increases firm-specific skills, but at the expense of the ability to learn new skills. However, experience as a board member does not have this effect in Japanese firms, the structure of which is known to encourage specific skills. Further, we provide a novel method to correct for selection biases when using data on managers.
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April 2016
Political Economy of Voluntary Approaches: A Lesson from Environmental Policies in Japan

Toshi H.Arimura, Shinji Kaneko, Shunsuke Managi, Takayoshi Shinkuma, Masashi Yamamoto and Yuichiro Yoshida
In this paper, we attempt to identify the reasons behind the differences in environmental policy between Japan and other developed countries, particularly the US. Japan’s environmental policy is unique in that voluntary approaches have been taken to reduce total emissions. This strategy is quite different from the traditional approach of heavy-handed regulation. In Japan, voluntary approaches are conducted through negotiations with polluters. The idea behind this type of voluntary approaches is that the government can induce polluters to abate emissions voluntarily by using light-handed regulations and the threat of heavy-handed regulations. The light-handed regulation is quite effective especially when it is costly to introduce heavy-handed regulations, although the negotiations are difficult to conduct when the number of stakeholders is large. To strengthen our analysis, we provide some examples of Japanese environmental policies which are successful and the ones that are not.
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April 2016
Determinants and Effects of Worker-Initiated Training: Learning about Required Job Skills at the Workplace

Hiromi Hara
There are two main channels for a worker to accumulate human capital; firm-provided training and worker-initiated training (jiko-keihatu). This study focuses on worker-initiated training---a learning activity to improve one's job skills outside of work hours at one's own expense---and examines the motivation underpinning it and its effects on wage growth, skill development, and job opportunities using a unique survey of Japanese workers. While the results indicate that there is no statistically significant immediate increase in wages from worker-initiated training, thus perhaps causing workers to be hesitant to engage in it, it is also shown that worker-initiated training improves job skills and enhances job opportunities, which suggests that it could lead to a wage increase in the future. In addition, those who receive guidance from their supervisors about required skills at the workplace, and thus some insight into desirable work-related skills, are more likely to engage in worker-initiated training than those who have not received such guidance. Moreover, those who within the past three years participated in firm-provided training, the other opportunity for a worker to learn about required skills at the workplace, are also more likely to participate in worker-initiated training. These results suggest that the introduction of a system to better inform workers about required job skills and the possible long-term effects of worker-initiated training could be effective in promoting it.
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March 2016
Can Guest Workers Solve Japan's Fiscal Problems?

Sagiri Kitao, Selahattin Imrohoroglu and Tomoaki Yamada
The labor force in Japan is projected to fall from about 64 million in 2014 to near 20 million in 2100. In addition, large increases in aging related public expenditures are projected which would require unprecedented fi scal adjustments to achieve sustainability under current policies. In this paper, we develop an overlapping generations model calibrated to micro and macro data in Japan and conduct experiments with a variety of guest worker and immigration programs under different assumptions on factor prices and labor productivities. Against a baseline general equilibrium transition which relies on a consumption tax to achieve fiscal sustainability, we compute alternative transitions with guest worker programs that bring in annual flows of foreign born workers residing in Japan for 10 years with the share of guest workers in total employment in a range between 4% and 16%. Depending on the size and skill distribution of guest workers, these programs significantly mitigate Japan's fi scal imbalance problem with a relatively manageable and temporary increase in the consumption tax rate.
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February 2016
Nontraditional Monetary Policy in a Model of Default Risks and Collateral in the Absence of Commitment

Hiroshi FUJIKI
We show that a central bank could improve the allocation of resources by delivering the defaulting party’s collateral goods to those who consume the most quickly. We base our discussion on Mills and Reed (2012)’s repo contract model, which shows that the consumption of the lender will be the same whether the borrower is a productive agent or an unproductive agent. We extend their model by considering shocks to the second period of lenders’ lives, which force them to consume within an early stage of the second period of their lives. The shock could make the consumption of lenders vary depending on the timing of transactions in the goods market. We show that a central bank could make the consumption of lenders constant regardless of the timing of transactions in the goods market, and could achieve better resource allocation by using various nontraditional monetary policy tools.
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January 2016
Optimality of the Friedman rule under ambiguity

Eisei Ohtaki
This article reexamines optimality of the Friedman rule in an economy, wherein (i) spatial separation and limited communication create a transactions role for money (ii) banks arise to provide liquidity, and (iii) agents are nonsmooth ambiguity aversion. It is shown that the structure of the set of “second-best” monetary policies crucially depends on the relation between the set of beliefs and the marginal productivity of capital. Especially, in order for the Friedman rule to be suboptimal, it is necessary for the maximum of subjective probabilities of realizing liquidity events to be sufficiently small.
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May 2016
信用金庫再編後の経営改善効果 ―合併効果の推計―

原田喜美枝, 北村仁代
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September 2015

藤木裕, 戸村肇
本稿の目的は、日本銀行の量的・質的金融緩和政策が達成された暁の政策運営(出口戦略)で生じる財政負担の試算を行うことである。ベンチマークシナリオとして日本銀行は2016 年度に2 %の「物価安定の目標」を達成した時点で、マネタリーベース目標を破棄し、長期国債の買入れを停止するとともに、短期金利を引き上げると仮定する。その後、日本銀行は、超過準備に政策金利並みの付利を行うとともに、長期国債の市中売却はせず、過去に購入した長期国債が満期を迎えるにつれ、徐々にバランスシートを縮小させると仮定する。この仮定の下では、超過準備がなくなるまでに約20 年が必要である。この間、長期国債からの利息収入が減る一方、巨額の超過準備への利払いが必要となるため、日本銀行の剰余金も10 年以上マイナスになる。ただしこの試算は景気見通しに沿った日本銀行の収益予測ではなくあくまでシナリオ分析であることに注意が必要である。他のシナリオ分析の結果からは、ベンチマークの仮定よりも「物価安定の目標」達成が遅れるほど、あるいは日本銀行券への需要が減るほど、日本銀行の剰余金のマイナス幅が大きくなることが示される。
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